with @vintweeta @smc90 Abbott Lab's latest COVID-19 test, which was just approved by the FDA, takes 15 minutes and will cost $5 -- making it a potential "game changer" in this pandemic... But does it truly democratize coronavirus testing? How is and isn't it like a pregnancy test? What does and doesn't the data tell us, and what key concepts (and math) do we need to know here?
In this episode of 16 Minutes, we cover the recent news around the FDA's Emergency Use Authorization approval of Abbott Lab's latest COVID-19 test, which takes 15 minutes and will cost $5. At that speed and price point -- as well as the fact that it doesn't require lab equipment at point of care -- it should definitely increase testing capacity, making it a potential "game changer" in this pandemic... But does it truly democratize coronavirus testing (in an available-to-everyone-everywhere way)? How is and isn't it like a pregnancy test, and when or how would we be able to administer it everywhere and by anyone?
To help tease apart what's hype/ what's real -- as is the premise of this show -- a16z bio general partner Vineeta Agarwala breaks it all down with host Sonal Chokshi in ~18 minutes. The conversation provides an overview of RT-PCR vs. antigen test types (and differences between "rapid" versions of both); digs into what the data does and doesn’t tell us here; and explains key concepts that everyone needs to know, including the "positive predictive value", which has implications for widespread detection and testing. Agarwala (who is also a practicing physician) also briefly touches on practical considerations from the clinical perspective... what do we really need when the winter flu season hits?
"Medicine’s Uncomfortable Relationship with Math: Calculating Positive Predictive Value", by Arjun Manrai, Gaurav Bhatia, Judith Strymish, et al, in JAMA Internal Medicine, June 2014
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